Ethan Ilzetzki
Research
Guns and Growth: The Economic Consequences of Defense Buildups. Kiel Report 2, 2025
Launched at the Munich Security Conference 2025.
Measuring Productivity Dispersion: Lessons From Counting One-Hundred Million Ballots (with Saverio Simonelli), R&R Economic Journal
Media: Les Echos
Fiscal Rules and Market Discipline (with Heidi Christina Thysen) IMF Economic Review, Oct. 2024.
Paper Published Version Bibtex Slides Video Presentation (At 1:17)
Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth, American Economic Review, 114 (8): 2436–71, Aug. 2024
Paper Published Version Bibtex Slides Video Presentation
Media: New Things Under the Sun blog
Kosher Pork (with Allan Drazen), Journal of Public Economics 277: Nov. 2023
Fiscal Events and Anchored Inflation Expectations, Policy Note for the 10th Asian Monetary Policy Forum, May 2023
Bibtex Slides Conference Webpage
Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Handbook of International Economics, vol 6, Gita Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman and Kenneth Rogoff, eds, 2022
Bibtex Slides Video Presentation Published Version
Media: Financial Times 26.11.21
Commentary: Inflation as a Fiscal Limit Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: August 2022
"Inflation as a Fiscal Limit" by Bianchi and Melosi. General Discussion
The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks (with Keyu Jin), Journal of International Economics, 130: May 2021
Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive Covid-19? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2020
Bibtex Slides Summary Video of Conference Project Syndicate Macro Musings Podcast Vox Article
Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff). Economic Policy, 35(3), 2020
Bibtex Slides Published Version
Media: Financial Times 4.11.19 Financial Times 5.12.19 Les Echos 10.06.20 Macro Musings Podcast
Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches (with Michael Best, James Cloyne, and Henrik Kleven). Review of Economic Studies, 89:2, 2020
Bibtex Slides Bunching at Mortgage Notches Published Version
The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach (with James Cloyne, Kilian Huber, and Henrik Kleven), American Economic Review, 109:6, 2019
Bibtex Slides Vox Summary Chicago Booth Review Summary Published Version
Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (with Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134:2, 599–646, 2019.
Bibtex Slides Anchor Currencies Exchange Rate Classifications Data Country Chronologies Appendix
Media: Economist, Financial Times, Macro Musings podcast
Citation in the Economic Report of the President 2025
Top 1% most cited article in economics
Top-20 most cited article in the QJE, past decade (source: Scopus)
Tax Reform and the Political Economy of the Tax Base, Journal of Public Economics, 164, pp. 197-2010, 2018
Bibtex Slides Published Version Appendix Working paper version with historical survey of tax reforms
How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? (with Enrique G. Mendoza and Carlos A. Vegh), Journal of Monetary Economics 60:2, pp. 239-254, 2013
Bibtex Data Fiscal Multipliers: Fixed and Flex
Media: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Irish Independent, Economist Buttonwood, Krugman Blog, Mankiw Blog, Econbrowser
Top 1% most cited article in economics
Top-100 most cited article in JME (all times ; top-10 in past 20 years; source: Scopus).
Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity (with Tim Besley and Torsten Persson), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5:4, pp. 205-32, 2013
Rent-Seeking Distortions and Fiscal Procyclicality, Journal of Development Economics 96, 2011, pp. 30-46
Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics in Developing Countries, May 2011
Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction? (With Carlos A. Vegh), July 2008